AI IPOs Raise Home Prices
The Bay Area housing market has always been tied to the technology industry. Legacy IPOs of Google, Facebook, and LinkedIn suggest that today’s OpenAI and Anthropic, with valuations for each targeted at nearly $1 trillion, will result in employees acquiring substantial holdings of common stock and Restricted Stock Units (RSUs), much of which will be converted into home purchasing power. While the announcements are anticipated in the Fall, San Francisco’s median price has already jumped over 25% from $1.7M in June 2025, to $2.2M in June 2026. In Burlingame, we just sold a home for $400,000 over the asking price.
The most noticeable impact on housing will likely occur between the $2 million to $6 million price segment in neighborhoods favored by technology professionals and where inventory continues to tighten such as Hillsborough, Burlingame, San Mateo, Belmont, San Carlos, and Menlo Park. Looking back at inventory from five or six years ago, the Active Number of Homes in June was in the mid-700s in San Mateo County. This month it is 522. The perfect storm of low inventory, high demand, and readily available cash requires buyers to show a strong financial position.
Employees expecting future liquidity often begin house hunting before their shares become fully tradable. Specialized lenders increasingly offer solutions that utilize Restricted Stock Units (RSU) income to qualify for a larger mortgage, generate up-front cash loans during black-out waiting periods, or enable selling shares for the down payment. These workers may not need to wait for the IPO to act.
Instead of waiting for their company to go public through an official IPO, some tech employees have reportedly cashed out early through private stock buybacks selling their shares back to the company, or they work with company approved private investors to turn their illiquid stock into capital. However, recent reports suggest that OpenAI and Anthropic (among others) have significantly restricted Private Share Trading in order to control their cap table, protect valuations, and prevent speculative exaggeration ahead of the IPO.
If you’re in the market to acquire property, whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, trading up, or moving out of the area, your circumstances are unique. To learn more about the dynamic real estate financing market, and how to optimize it to suit your aspirations, reach out for a personalized answer.
June Market Update
San Mateo County saw the Median Sold Price of a single family home slip 2% from $2,200,000 to $2,156,000 between May and June, up from $2,000,000 in June of 2025. Between May and June, Average Days to Sell decreased from 22 to 20 (23 last June), Sales Price to List Price ratio remained flat at 107% (103% last June), Months of Inventory decreased 1.4 to 1.2 (1.9 last June), and Active Number of Homes slid from 537 to 522 (672 last June).
According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending 7/2, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.??% Rates have remained relatively stable over the last six weeks. up from the YTD low of 6.0% in February. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.85%
About Peter Gum
Peter and Judy Gum live in Burlingame with their daughter Megan attending UCSB, and son Nathan having graduated UCSB class of 2026. Peter has been active in the community receiving the PTA Honorary Service Award for fundraising and volunteerism in support of Burlingame schools, Boy Scouts, church, and youth sports. He served as Chair of the Planning Commission, Sub-Chair of the County Charter Review Committee and CMO of the United Flying Club. He also received the inaugural "Gumbo Award" for outstanding service to McKinley Elementary School and the City Beautification Award for the landscaping and hardscaping he created for his first house in Redwood City.
As a landlord, property investor, and REALTOR®, Peter offers a unique background enabling broad consultation on remodeling, local development, landlord/tenant relations, and referrals for contractors, architects, financial/tax/legal advisors, and home service vendors. Call anytime.
Peter Gum
REALTOR®©
DRE# 01928396
415-509-2326
KW Peninsula Estates