At nearly $1.7 million for the median home sale, you'd think higher mortgage rates might finally be taking some heat out of the Peninsula housing market.
Instead, buyers are competing more than they were a year ago.
The number that jumped out at me:
55.9% of homes in San Mateo County sold above asking price.
But that's not even the surprising part.
That figure increased by 10.3 percentage points in one year.
Among the three Northern California regions I compared, that's the biggest increase by far.
Homes Are Selling in About Two Weeks
Across San Mateo County, including San Mateo, Redwood City, Menlo Park and surrounding communities, the median sale price reached approximately $1.69 million.
That's up 2.4% year over year.
Median days on market dropped from 21 days to just 15 days.
Price reductions fell to 13% of listings.
And the sale-to-list ratio sits at approximately 104.9%.
Put those numbers together and the picture becomes pretty clear:
Demand for desirable Peninsula homes remains strong.
Higher Rates Didn't Automatically Kill Competition
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.76% as of September 10.
That's actually higher than it was a year ago.
Normally, higher borrowing costs should reduce what buyers can afford and put downward pressure on demand.
But real estate doesn't happen in a national spreadsheet.
On the Peninsula, buyers are still dealing with limited housing supply, highly desirable communities, major employment centers and neighborhoods where opportunities to purchase don't appear every day.
When the right house comes up, buyers can still compete for it.
And apparently they are.
The Over-Asking Number Matters More Than the Headline Price
The median price increased 2.4%.
That's noteworthy.
But I'd argue the 10.3-point increase in over-asking sales tells us more about what buyers are actually experiencing.
Prices don't have to skyrocket for a market to become more competitive.
If more buyers are fighting over the same desirable properties, you can see that pressure through bidding behavior before it necessarily produces dramatic annual price growth.
More than half of Peninsula homes selling above asking suggests buyers need to understand the difference between a home's list price and its probable market value.
Because those aren't always the same thing.
A $1.6 Million Listing May Not Be a $1.6 Million House
This is one of the biggest mistakes buyers can make in competitive Bay Area markets.
They search all the way up to the maximum amount they're approved to spend.
Then they fall in love with a home listed at that number.
Then six other people apparently fall in love with it too, because humans remain deeply committed to wanting the exact same house at the exact same time.
When over-asking sales are this common, buyers need to look at recent comparable sales before deciding what price range they should actually search.
A lower list price can sometimes be a pricing strategy rather than an indication of where the seller expects the property to close.
Sellers Still Have to Get It Right
A competitive market doesn't guarantee every house will perform the same way.
Thirteen percent of listings still experienced price reductions.
Condition matters.
Presentation matters.
Neighborhood matters.
And initial pricing matters.
The county statistics tell us buyers are competing.
They don't tell us buyers have abandoned common sense entirely.
The Peninsula Is Showing Why Real Estate Stays Hyperlocal
California's statewide median price has been roughly flat year over year.
National home sales have slowed.
Mortgage rates are higher than they were last September.
And meanwhile, San Mateo County has:
55.9% of homes selling above asking.
A 15-day median market time.
A 10.3 percentage-point jump in over-asking sales.
That's why broad statements about "the housing market" can be so misleading.
There isn't one.
A buyer in Stockton may be looking for price reductions and negotiating leverage.
A buyer in San Mateo County may be preparing for competition before the first open house.
Same state.
Same mortgage-rate environment.
Completely different experience.
And if you're considering whether to stay on the Peninsula, move elsewhere in the Bay Area or take your buying power farther inland, understanding that difference matters a lot more than trying to figure out whether the national housing market is supposedly "good" or "bad."
"Market data reflects the latest figures available as of September 15, 2026. San Mateo County figures are based on Redfin's three-month period ending August 2026. San Mateo Zillow ZHVI and Freddie Mac mortgage-rate data provide additional context."