Menlo Park had a loud couple of weeks, and most of it happened about a mile from the Atherton line.On September 29 the Menlo Park City Council voted to reject a Builder's Remedy application for the old Sunset Magazine campus at Willow and Middlefield. On October 2 the developer sued. The plan calls for three towers, the tallest at 461 feet, which the Palo Alto Daily Post says would be the tallest building between San Francisco and Los Angeles. 665 apartments, a hotel, office space, a preschool.The developer is Oisin Heneghan of N17 Development. The state Attorney General's office had already written the city on July 28 saying Menlo Park improperly changed its grounds for turning the project down. Mayor Betsy Nash said the council wants to get this right "even if there are financial consequences."So a city is fighting the state, a developer, and maybe a sanctions question at the same time. That one will take a while.Meanwhile, quieter, something actually got approved. 800 Oak Grove Avenue, a six-story building on a downtown surface lot at Crane Street, cleared the council 5 to 0 on September 22, per the Menlo Park Tribune, which picked it up October 8 after San Francisco YIMBY reported it. Fifteen for-sale homes, one of them a very low income unit under the city's BMR program, about 72 feet tall, using state density bonus law to go past normal zoning.Fifteen. For sale.That's the number I keep coming back to. The bigger downtown plan, turning three city parking plazas into 345 to 500 apartments, is all rental. MonitorMenlo.news went through the city's September 29 financial review and every one of the three bids is a rental project. Voters decide on November 3 through Measure P whether the city needs their approval before selling or changing those lots. The Registry, via Real Estate Trail, reported the review found funding gaps of roughly $19 million to $45 million across the bids.And the biggest pipeline project in town is on ice. Meta paused Willow Village, 1,730 planned units, indefinitely in May, according to a July city staff report that MonitorMenlo cites.Why do I care about this from an Atherton seat?Because Atherton and west Menlo Park share a buyer pool, and those buyers have almost nowhere new to land. The Peninsula is adding apartments in a real way. It is barely adding houses or condos anyone can own. When a family priced out of 94027 slides over to Menlo Park, they're shopping the same old single-family stock, plus whatever handful of condos like 800 Oak Grove eventually deliver. That keeps pressure on the Allied Arts and Linfield Oaks type pockets, and it keeps a floor under the smaller one-acre Atherton lots that compete with them.The other piece is SB 79. The Almanac reported in July that seven Atherton parcels sit within a quarter mile of the Menlo Park Caltrain station's pedestrian access, which puts them in the new transit density zone even though Atherton's own station has been closed since 2020. One preliminary application, 30 townhomes at 110 Glenwood, is already in. If you own or are buying on those few streets near Laurel and Glenwood, that is a real due diligence question. Ask the town planning department what's on file nearby before you write an offer.Rates aren't helping anybody's patience. Freddie Mac had the 30-year fixed at 7.40% on October 8, up from 7.28% the week before and 6.30% a year ago. real estate agent.com called it the highest since mid-November 2023. At Atherton prices most of that is jumbo or cash money anyway, but in Menlo Park, where more buyers are financing a $3 to $5 million house, every week of that drift shows up at the offer table.Nothing here moves Atherton values this month. But the town next door is where the density fight is actually happening, and a 461-foot tower lawsuit, a ballot measure, and 15 condos tell you a lot about how little ownable housing is coming. I'd watch Measure P on November 3 and the Sunset case after it.Michael Williams is a Bay Area agent with Golden Gate Luxury (Turbohome Inc). Seventeen years in, more than $250M closed, formerly #1 at Flyhomes and Aalto, DRE #01780513. Golden Gate Luxury is not affiliated with Golden Gate Sotheby's.General market commentary only. Nothing here is legal, tax, or financial advice. Zoning, SB 79 eligibility and litigation change fast, so check with the town, a land use attorney, or your lender before acting on any of it.
Michael Williams
Luxury Specialist
Area served: Sausalito, Marin County, CA, Menlo Park, CA, San Francisco, CA
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