The story that says it all
A longtime broker was helping a buyer bid on a luxury condo in **Cow Hollow** last week. The asking price was $3.8 million, so they added half a million dollars. They lost to an offer for well over $5 million. The broker's take: "If you look at the recent comparable sales, you almost have to throw them out the window."The numbers worth knowing
- **Nearly 92% of single-family homes** in San Francisco sold above asking in September, the highest percentage on record (per Compass).
- **Nearly 3 in 4 condos** sold above asking in the first three weeks of October.
- **The average single-family home** sold for nearly 30% over list in September 2026, more than double the 13% margin of September 2025.
- **Inventory is razor thin.** Just 240 single-family homes were on the market at the end of September, the lowest total for the month since at least 2020.
- **The median single-family sale price** is nearly $2.6 million through Oct. 20, up from $1.9 million in October 2025 and the highest median since at least 2020. (The Chronicle notes part of that spike is probably a shift toward luxury homes in the mix of what's selling.)
- **San Francisco is a rarity.** A Redfin analysis found SF is one of just six major U.S. metro areas considered a "seller's market," while much of the country is cooling.
Why pricing has become a guessing game
Sellers have long "priced to entice," setting the asking price low to spark competition. This year, agents quoted in the article say some sellers have priced about a third below market value for "auction-style" sales. One agent put the challenge plainly: "We are pricing properties on aged data. And aged data in this market is three months."Another broker: "We don't really know where value is, and so the safe thing to do is to price low and just see what happens."My straight-talk take
Here's what I tell my clients:- **Buyers: the list price is a starting line, not a finish line.** Work out your true maximum number BEFORE you walk into an open house, and get pre-underwritten so you can move fast. (Mortgage rates are now above 7%, so run the monthly payment, not just the price.)
- **Don't rely on old comps alone.** Ask your agent for the very latest sales, and for context on what the home actually sold for versus what it listed for.
- **Sellers: a low list price can work, but it's a strategy, not a guarantee.** The right approach depends on your home, your street and the moment. Prep, presentation and timing still matter. This is where my construction and renovation background earns its keep.
- **Don't give up.** As that same broker says, it can be very disappointing to find you weren't even close. "But as a buyer you can't give up." Agreed. The right home is out there, and I've got a guy (or gal) for just about everything along the way: inspections, contractors, you name it.