Why the median can fall when price per square foot doesn't
A median is just the middle sale in whatever happened to sell. If more condos and townhomes close in a given stretch, and fewer large single-family homes, the median drops even if no individual home lost value. That's why a price per square foot that's roughly flat is a reason to be careful with a 9% headline.It doesn't prove values held up. Price per square foot has its own limits, and other data sets can show a different picture. It does mean one number can't tell you what your home, or the home you want, is worth today.What the price reductions tell you
This is the clearer change. Redfin shows 29.6% of Milpitas homes had a price drop, up 11.8 points from a year ago. So sellers are adjusting more often than they were.Still, this isn't a market where everything sits. Redfin shows homes selling in about 20 days, at about 100.9% of list price on average, and 45.4% selling above list, down 3.2 points from last year. Sales were close to last year as well, with 99 homes sold in September compared with 105.Put together, that looks like a market where buyers are pushing back on some prices, not one where every home is falling.How to read a price cut on one home
A reduction can mean several things, and they aren't equally good news for a buyer:- The first price was too high, and the new one is simply closer to market value.
- The seller has a deadline or has already bought elsewhere.
- Buyers saw something they didn't like, such as condition, layout, HOA costs or location on the block.
- An earlier offer fell through.
A checklist for comparing one Milpitas home
When comparing a specific home, these are generally worth lining up:- Recent sales: the closest matches from the last three to six months, in the same neighborhood if you can.
- Same kind of home: compare detached with detached and townhome with townhome.
- Size and lot: living area, bedrooms, and usable outdoor space.
- Condition: roof, kitchen, baths, and permits for any additions.
- Location: busy roads, commute access, and what backs up to the property.
- Monthly cost: HOA dues, Mello-Roos or other special assessments, and estimated property tax (confirm with the county or a tax professional).
- Listing history: days on market and every price change.
- Asking price against all of the above: not against last year's headline.
Linh Tran
REALTOR®
Area served: San Jose, Santa Clara County, CA, Milpitas, Santa Clara County, CA, Fremont, Alameda County, CA, Newark, Alameda County, CA, Santa Clara, CA, Cupertino, Santa Clara County, CA
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